Dave Lewis resumes his SPE distinguished lecturer tour on Reliability Based Design – The Inevitable Evolution in Complex Wellbore Tubular Design in April with lectures Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Poland.
Dave was selected as a Distinguished Lecturer for the Society of Petroleum Engineers from September 2009 through May 2010. The purpose of the Distinguished Lecturers Program is to assist SPE sections in obtaining recognized, outstanding speakers for section meetings and recognize the professional contributions of the person selected as a Distinguished Lecturer. It is one of the most important programs through which the Society meets its principle objective-the dissemination of technical information. Dave has been a driving force behind the migration to Reliabilty Based Design(RBD) techniques for well construction. RBD is widely used in civil and aeronautical engineering, however its use in the Oil and Gas industry is limited.

RBD is a design methodology whereby an engineer can explicitly quantify the risk associated with a particular event, operation, or design. With the risk quantified the engineer can evaluate the options and come to the optimal risk-cost balanced decision based on project economics. Proper application of this technique resulted in a cost savings of over $250 million for one client. Through Dave's lecture on the subject, he hopes to impart his knowledge on the subject and how it can optimize future wellbore designs.

Reliability Based Design – The Inevitable Evolution in Complex Wellbore Tubular Design

Traditional design approaches, including working stress design, have served our industry well for decades. In recent times, with an increase in deeper, hotter, and more complex wells, the Industry has encountered the limitations of traditional design approaches that often imply either the impossibility of design, or force engineers to make subjective compromises in the design. More sophisticated alternative design approaches are needed, primary among which is reliability-based design.

This lecture focuses on the application of reliability-based design for complex wells. Traditional design approaches and their limitations are reviewed briefly. The evolution of design to limit-states, as exemplified by the recent ISO TR 10400 for casing and tubing is discussed in some detail. The rationale for reliability-based design is introduced. The rigorous statistical basis, and the standards that govern the development of reliability-based designs are discussed and placed in the context of the natural tolerance and aversion of a society to risk. The concept of "Design Level" based on the sophistication and probabilistic nature of the approach is introduced. Several real-well examples are used to illustrate the need for, and the power of reliability-based design. The examples also provide a link between the traditional working stress design and reliability-based methods. Finally, it is shown that reliability-based design approaches are standard in virtually every other structural and civil design disciplines, with our industry being a late adopter of this critical enabling technology.

Dave's current lecture schedule is:

Date	Time	SPE Chapter	Location
12 Oct 2009	11:00 AM	Southeastern	Mobile, Alabama
13 Oct 2009	12:15 PM	Evangeline	Lafayette, Louisiana
14 Oct 2009	12:00 PM	Hobbs	Hobbs, New Mexico
19 Apr 2010	6:30 PM	Azerbaijan	Baku, Azerbaijan
21 Apr 2010	7:00 PM	Kazakhstan	Atyrau, Kazakhstan
22 Apr 2010	6:00 PM	Kazakhstan -Aktau	Aktau, Kazakhstan
26 Apr 2010	11:00 AM	Poland	Krakow, Poland

For more information on the SPE Distinguished Lecturer series, please visit the SPE website.